Rod's Notes

Rod's Note From Wednesday 07/13/11

Wednesday 07/13/11


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Attachments, Announcements, and Travels; open what you like and delete the balance (1) June absorption report (2) Bake sale announcement for Johnny Hesni (3) Latter & Blum June newletter (4) Two studies one for Nine Oaks and the other for Charleston Condo


Bake sale for Johnny Hesni and his family: Wednesday July 20th starting at 8:00 am. You are invited to show up with obscene amount of money for your cake. See attachment.


American Cancer Society: Boots and bow tie Gala, August 20th at Alexander Country Club tie up  your horse right at sun down 6:30 pm call Helen Strickland sales manager at Noles-Frye Realty 445-sold.;


Guest  Ivan J. Miestchovich, Ph.D. Director and Associate Professor Institute for Economic Development and Real Estate Research University of New Orleans. Made arrangements to have quarterly interview titled “Update from Professor Ivan”


Every Deal has a tale / tail.


Piccadilly at the Mall: Closed last week one at Mac Arthur Village still open


Shoppers drawn in by sales: American consumers that were enticed by warmer weather and discounts of up to 80% on summer merchandise went on a buying binge in June, helping many retailers deliver robust revenue gains for what is typically the second-biggest shopping month of the year. But as the U.S. economy struggles to revive, the concern among analysts is that the strong revenue momentum at big retailers such as Target and Costco may not extend into the busy back-to-school shopping season.


Used Car Biz must be OK.

John W & Donna J Decker (7834 Loa Place, Diamondhead, MS 39525) to Vaughn Real Estate Holdings, LLC (1102 NW Main St., Bunkie, LA 71322) - 2.568 acres in Sec 43, T4NR1W, $778,000.00. If land has zero value this is $7 psf sale.


Cyril J Murphy, III (P O Box 8503, Alex., LA 71306) to Jonas E & Cherry L Gauthier (52 Credeur Road, Pineville, LA 71360) - 1.07 acres in Sec 25, T4NR4W, $520,000.00


Walkermoves into $5,000,000 wonderful facility.


Fun to follow names of partnerships and LLC give me an idea how they came up with the following:


Bradley P & Amy M Scroggs (2289 Hwy. 457, Alex., LA 71302) to Alexandria Dubble D, (think double D is for Downs and Drerup and not bra size) LLC Kyle Downs Drerup(2800 Jackson St., Alex., LA) - 12.62 acres in Sec 24, T3NR1E (2289 Hwy. 457, Alex., LA 71302), $200,000.00. Google aerial seems to be near corner of PC Linzey road and highway 457, going South Highway 1 just past Latanier cut off turn

Turn left on 457 (sale includes a house)


James H Bradford, Jr., et al (906 Wimbledon Blvd., Alex., LA 71303) to Nfocus Technologies, LLC Michael Carbo (4012 Parliament Dr., Alex., LA 71303) - Tract known as 4012 Parliament Dr., Alex., LA 71303, $190,000.00.


Good sign when: past several weeks Southern Funding on Mac Arthur sales, Meyer, Meyer, Hixson and LaCroix sale warehouse, Professional building sales, Vaughn Motors buys their location on Jackson and now 4012 Parliament sales at fair price.


Speaking of “Good Signs” big house, huge house in Charles Park at corner of Wendover and Wimbledon has two signs by owner. One is for rent, second sign is for sale. Looks like someone could buy part of the house and another family could lease part of the house. Like I said it is a big sign and wins my “sign of the week award.”


Second property transfer in past 30 days on Jackson to community service organizations and 3rd sale in neighborhood:


The Rapides Foundation (1101 4th St., Suite 300, Alex., LA 71301) to Rapides Children's Advocacy Center, Inc. (2004 Jackson St., Alex., LA 71301) - Tract on or near Jackson & Bolton Ave., et al, $100,000.00


Last week we discussed: Magnolia Pharmacy Services, LLC (3700Bayou Rapides Road, Alex., LA 71303) to Central Louisiana Aids Support Services ,Inc. (1785 Jackson St., Alex., LA 71301) - Part of Blk O, Clarence park Addn. (1783 & 1785 Jackson St., Alex., LA 71301), $187,000.00. Paul Maxwellwas listing agent not sure if he had both sides.


Southern Heritage Bank (5211 Jackson St., Alex., LA 71303) to Family Counseling Agency (1605 Murray St., Alex., LA 71301) - Lots 13-15, Sq 3, Weil Co. Subd. (1605 Murray St., Alex., LA 71301), $340,000.00 week prior to that Professional building sells Spencer Marks agent.  


Siegen Lane Marketplace apartment complex sold for $27.8 million

Tuscany Villas, an upscale Siegen Lane apartment complex, has been sold to a group of local investors for $27.8 million. New Hope Investors-Tuscany bought the 274-unit complex from Tuscany Reserve, which built the development. New Hope is led by John Noland. The group says it doesn't plan on making any changes to the complex, beyond some cosmetic improvements. Tuscany Villas, which is located in the Siegen Lane Marketplace center, opened in spring 2008. Units in Tuscany Villas rent for between $825 and $1,500 a month. The complex is 94% occupied. This is a unit price of $101,459 per unit.


New Construction:


Holiday Inn Express on MacArthur Drive new hotel under construction behind former Burger King. Staff called yesterday making an inquiry for the show and person who answered the phone told Mary Ann it was none of her business what type hotel was being built. Permit office was closed when we call Holiday Inn Express but I will let you know next week.


Christus St. Frances Cabrini Hospital (3330 Masonic Dr., Alex., LA 71301) to Skip Converse, Inc. (318 Jones St., Pineville, LA 71360) - Freedmon Memorial Cardiology Clinic Expansion Suite 112, $112,750.00


Christus St. Frances Cabrini Hospital (3330 Masonic Dr., Alex., LA 71301) to Skip Converse, Inc. (318 Jones St., Pineville, LA 71360) - Dr. Stehr Office alterations Suite 311, $81,315.00



Investor sales:


JSW Investments, LLC Jimmy Whittle (5121 Hunters Grove, Alex., LA 71301) to Jessica N Sanders (394 Hwy. 1193, Marksville, LA 71351) - Unit 216, Parliament Square Condominiums (4503 Heyman Lane, Unit 216, Alex., LA 71303), $90,000.00


Price Co Development Corp. (315 Expressway Dr., Pineville, LA 71360) to C & A Development of Cenla, LLC Carroll Wayne Johnson(7257 Esler Field Road, Pineville, LA 71360) - Lot 12, Graceland Subd., $15,000.00


Charlene D Mitchel (P O Box 8, Ruby, LA 71365) to Delta Farming of Avoyelles, LLC Tommy Passmore(P O Box 270, Effie, LA 71331) - 1.7 acres in Sec 12, T3NR4W (111 Dewil Cemetery Road, Boyce, LA 71409), $20,000.00

Rapides Parish sales:


Rapides Parish Sales:


The Parish of Rapides to Patricia Carr (3617 Kees Ave., Alex., LA) - Lot 2, Economy Homes Subd. (3613 Kees Ave., Alex., LA 71301), $2,232.88


The Parish of Rapides to John Harley (215 No. 14th, Alex., LA 71301) - Lot 1, Sq 17, Welch Addn. (1408 Ashley Ave., Alex., LA 71301), $3,666.67


The Parish of Rapides to Jimmie De Ramus (2417 Lee St., Alex., LA 71301) - Lot G, Rapides Realty Co. Subd. (2501 Lee St., Alex., LA 71301), $983.33


Mykoff absorption studyfor June: Dr. Ivan do you track this number and what would near 9 absorption tell you?


8.88 months supply for total market 755 homes for sale 85 sold 145 new homes on the market


44 month supply $400,000 number for sale is 44 and 1 sold 1 new home on the market


10.44 month supply $250,001 to $400,000 number for sale was 94 and 9 sold with16 new ones for sale


8.33 month supply $150,001 to $250,000 number for sale was 200 and 24 sold 30 new ones came on the market


8.18 month supply under $150,000 number for sale was 417 and 51 sold with 98 new homes on the market.


Rick Haase, President, Latter & Blum Inc., spoke of the state of residential real estate in our area and said that there's still a tremendous gap in the number of properties available for sale and the number of homes that are actually sold, although inventory is starting to fall. A four-to-five month supply of homes is generally considered a healthy level of sale inventory in a market, but right now, there's a 10.9-month supply in Orleans Parish, an 11.7-month supply in Jefferson, and 12.9-month supply in St. Tammany. "This is still an over-supply, under-demand market," he said. Quote from Rick Haase at economic summit in New Orleans


Rod’s economic indicatorperfect score is 5. When top rating of 5 appears week after week I will share with our audience, that “Green Shots” is here and recovery is in full swing. Rating for previous week was 3


Legal recorder data for five business day July 5th, 2011 though July 8th, 2011


(1)Total of 40 closed deals for the week has positive score

(2) At least one new home sale for the week has positive score

(3) At least one subdivision lot sale for the week garners positive score

(4) Number of lender sales in market place is less than 5% of the total market sales for the week.

(5) Two random residential sales compared to average prices for 2008, 2009 and 2010 that demonstrate increase prices.


(+1) Total saleslooking for 40 closed deals from previous week the market gave; rates positive for the week even though we hit 33 sales and not 40 (keep in mind court house was closed Monday July 4th) volume was very strong $4,377,131


Capital Region home sales down 13% for first half of year

Through the first half of the year, the number of homes sold in the Capital Region is down 13% when compared with the first six months of 2010. There were 3,107 homes sold as of June, according to figures from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors' Multiple Listing Service. That compares with 3,586 MLS sales for the first half of 2010. The average sale price was $193,294 for the first half of 2010, virtually unchanged from the $192,274 average in the first half of this year. Sales were down 11% in East Baton Rouge Parish, from 1,923 in 2010 to 1,703 this year. The average sale price was $204,767, compared with $206,009 in 2011. Livingston Parish had a 17.5% sales drop from 2010, going from 661 MLS sales in the first half of the year to 545. The average sale price in Livingston also fell, going from $161,822 in 2010 to $154,053. Ascension Parish had the biggest drop in home sales, falling 21% from 749 in 2010 to 589. The average sale price was slightly unchanged, falling from $198,438 to $197,595. And in the other category, which includes the Felicianas, West Baton Rouge and Iberville Parishes, MLS sales actually went up 7% in 2011, going from 253 in 2010 to 270 this year. The sale price was down slightly from $173,082 to $171,183


Rapides Parish June 2010 to same time 2011: Sales are down 15% and average home price $156,519 down 8.21% comparing just June to June.


(.50) Random salescomparison: We track average sales price in certain subdivision for 2008 through 2010 and compare it to a sale this.


Carlton J Charles, Jr. & Ginger G Charles (108 Nine Oaks Lane, Pineville, LA 71360) to Crest Tec Properties, LLC (13862 Perkins Road, Baton Rouge, LA 70810) - Lot 3, Nine Oaks Subd., $137,500.00. Four sales in past three years in small development with only 13 lots just prior to Village Green average is $137,875 close enough to sale we are tracking to rate positive score.


Norman L Gunn (15 Fielding Road, St. Louis, MO 63124) to Georgia C & Stanley E Everett (P O Box 442, Conover, NC 28613) - Unit 1, Charleston Condominium (4400 Charleston Circle, Unit 1, Alex., LA 71303), $90,000.00. Negative score on this sale as average over past three years with 8 sales is $102,656


(+1) Lot Sales Only need one sale for positive score and this week the market gave us


Bocage Subdivision of Alex., LLC (P O Box 12846, Alex., LA 71315) to V & V Builders, LLC (P O Box 12846, Alex., LA 71315) - Lot 223, Bocage Subd., Phase V (5926 West Austin Dr., Alex., LA 71303), $22,000.00


Johnathan S & Bridgette B Vidrine (2837 St. Landry Hwy., St. Landry, LA 71367) to Alan S Atkinson & Kayla A Redmond (416 Black Water River Dr., Lafayette, LA 70508) - Lot 21, Indian Creek Park (180 Belle Trace Road, Lecompte, LA 71346), $36,500.00


(+1) New Home sales positive score requires only one sale for the week:


Campbell's Construction, Inc. (8426 Old Hwy. 71 N, Pineville, LA 71360) to Christopher L & Patti E Turner (331 Choctaw Dr., Pineville, LA 71360) - Lot 50, Revised, Choctaw Hills Subd., $195,000.00


(+1) Lender total Salesrates positive score if lender sales are below 5% of total sales.


Deutsche Bank, et al to Mary Pounders (3316 Pkwy. Dr., Alex., LA 71301) - Lot 15, Glendale Addn. (3316 Parkway Dr., Alex., LA 71301), $91,000.00


PMI Story



Interest Rates: 30 year fixed is 4.50% was 4.58% the 15 year rate is 3.64% was 3.71% this is up from last week following eight straight weekly declines. 5/1 ARM is 3.16% was below 3%. Dr. Ivan where do you think interest rates are headed?



New addition to show: Each week will highlight different national companies that have a presence here in Central La.


Auto Zone

2 Billion in sales for 3rd quarter

5.4% same store sales increase

12.1% increase in profits

4,467 stores in 48 states largest auto part store in America

213 new sotres in past fiscal year

$297.98 recent price of single share of stock an all time high

5.7% growth for competitor O’Riley

6,000 to 7,200 square feet is the typical store (divided evenly between leased and owned)

Most stores are free standing but will consider in line store like in Kingsville

Demographics consider vehicle profile looking for 7 year or older ownership no remaining warranties and do it yourself repairs.


Regional Stories of Interest


Initial La. unemployment claims increase

First-time claims for unemployment increased in Louisiana for the week ending Saturday. The Louisiana Workforce Commission says the initial claims were 4,169, compared with 3,804 for the week ending June 25. The figure was lower than it was for the comparable week a year earlier, when there were 4,750 initial claims. The four-week moving average, which is a less volatile measure, decreased to 4,146 from the previous week's total of 4,440. Continued unemployment claims filed for the week ending Saturday totaled 47,097, a decrease from 47,769 for the week ending June 25. The four-week moving average for such claims increased to 47,236 from 46,446.


U.S.unemployment rises to 9.2%, hiring stalls

Hiring slowed to a near-standstill last month. Employers added the fewest jobs in nine months, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.2%. The economy generated only 18,000 net jobs in June, the Labor Department says. And the number of jobs added in May was revised down to 25,000. The latest report offered stark evidence that the recovery will be painfully slow. It also raised doubts that the economy will rebound in the second half of the year, having weathered a spring slump. Businesses added just 57,000 jobs last month—the fewest in more than a year. Governments cut 39,000 jobs. Over the past eight months, federal, state and local governments have cut a combined 238,000 positions. Stock futures plunged after the report's release. "June's employment report doesn't have a single redeeming feature," says Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics. "It's awful from start to finish." Two years after the recession officially ended, companies are adding fewer workers despite record cash stockpiles and healthy profit margins. Companies have pulled back on hiring after adding an average of 215,000 jobs per month from February through April. The economy typically needs to add 125,000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. And at least twice that many jobs are needed to bring down the unemployment rate.

Economists have said that temporary factors have, in part, forced some employers to hold back on adding workers. High gas prices have cut into consumer spending. And supply-chain disruptions stemming from the Japan crisis have slowed U.S. manufacturing production.


U.S.oil and natural gas rig count up

The number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. rose by one this week to 1,887. Houston-based drilling product provider Baker Hughes Inc. reported today that 1,007 rigs were exploring for oil and 873 for natural gas. Seven were listed as miscellaneous. A year ago, the rig count stood at 1,567. Of the major oil- and gas-producing states, Louisiana gained four rigs, Oklahoma three, and Alaska and New Mexico one each. North Dakota and Texas each declined by three; and Arkansas, California and Pennsylvania were down by one apiece. Colorado, West Virginia and Wyoming were unchanged. The rig count peaked at 4,530 in 1981, the height of the oil boom. A low of 488 was recorded in 1999.


Official says early signs are positive on oil play north of Baton Rouge

The Tuscaloosa Marine Shale formation covers 2.7 million acres across southwest Mississippi and central Louisiana, including the Felicianas, St. Helena Parish, and areas in northern Pointe Coupee, East Baton Rouge and Livingston parishes. A 1997 LSU study estimates it could contain about 7 billion barrels of oil. While wells have been drilled in the shale in the past with some success, advanced drilling techniques could make the formation more productive. "They've got some wells that are getting ready to be drilled that are going to be significant, kind of the proof of the pudding," says Louisiana Oil & Gas Association President Don Briggs. "But there's enough leasing going on to give you some satisfaction that obviously it's pretty damn good, or they wouldn't be spending the money on leases they're spending. … They're drilling the additional wells because what they got looked pretty good." North Louisiana's Haynesville Shale remains far better known. However, Haynesville is a natural gas play, and natural gas is far less profitable at the moment than oil, a factor that adds to the Tuscaloosa formation's attractiveness. On the other hand, Briggs says, companies drilling in the Haynesville Shale almost are guaranteed to hit pay dirt; it remains to be seen if the Tuscaloosa formation will be that productive. Devon Energy, Indigo II Louisiana [a division of Indigo Minerals], Denbury Resources, and Goodrich Petroleum are among the companies reported to be exploring in the formation.


GS Financial approves $26.2 million Home Bank buyout

GS Financial Corp. says its shareholders have approved overwhelmingly the banking company's $26.2 million deal to be acquired by Home Bancorp Inc. Lafayette-based Home Bancorp will get GS Financial's five offices in the New Orleans area, along with a loan production office. Metairie-based GS Financial operates under the Guaranty Savings Bank logo. Currently, Home Bancorp has 18 Louisiana banking offices in Lafayette, Baton Rouge and the parishes north of Lake Pontchartrain. Home Bancorp says the combined bank will have total assets of about $950 million, $625 million in loans and $750 million in deposits. The purchase is set to close during the current quarter.


College Drive demolition work clears way for Chick-fil-A

The old Derek Chang's Koto of Japan restaurant on College Drive has been demolished to make room for a new Chick-fil-A restaurant. The building was torn down last week. George Kurz of Kurz & Hebert Commercial Real Estate, who had the listing for the property, says Chick-fil-A has received a building permit and signed a lease for the site. Kurz says construction on the new restaurant should start in the next three months. Chick-fil-A has been rumored for more than a year to be interested in the property across the street from a Walmart Supercenter. The chicken chain has five locations in Baton Rouge.


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